Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
